DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL

Stage 1. Here both birth rates and death rates fluctuates at a high level (about 35 per 1000) giving a small population growth.

Stage 2. Birth rates remain high, but death rates fall rapidly to about 20 per 1000 people giving a rapid population growth.

Stage 3. Birth rates fall rapidly, to perhaps 20 per 1000 people, while death rates continue to fall slightly (15 per 1000 people) to give a slowly increasing population.

Stage 4. Both birth rates and death rates remain low, fluctuating slightly to give a steady population.


Nowadays the MEDCs (the more economically developed countries) have reached stage 4 (UK, USA, and Spain). Meanwhile the more developed LEDCs have reached the 3 stage (India, Mexico, Brazil, and the least developed remain al 2 stage (Chad, Nigeria, Kenya). It has been notice that since the 1990s several MEDCs appear to be entering in a new and fifth stage. This stage is where the birth rate is beginning to fall below the death rate. It is predicted that, if this trend continue, countries entering this stage will eventually see a natural decrease in their total population.